How low will it go? Episode 4: The Lost Hope
Like most Hollywood franchises, by the time you get to the fourth installment, you expect to be let down. Since there’s no point in attempting to create any plot, here are the updated scenes you would expect to see from past installments.
Unemployment Rate
Change in Unemployment During Selected Recessions
Rise of Unemployment During Recessions
Unemployment During and After Recessions
Episodes I – III can be found below
Data sources:
Recessionary Periods; National Bureau of Economic Research
Unemployment Rate; Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Entry filed under: Economy and Unemployment. Tags: .
1.
Dominic | 18Jan11 at 10:14 pm
Love the analysis and the blog. Great reading. As for the forecast on unemployment I hope I am wrong in thinking that we may be several years away from seeing “normal” employment levels. Although the current recession may officially be over as we have GDP growth, I think it is unique from recent recoveries in that we are seeing de-leveraging take place in business, households and local/state governments. This has not been experienced since the recession of the early 1930s followed by a decade of high unemployment. My fears are the excess capacity that continues to exist in our economy is setting up a deflationary cycle. That coupled with steady productivity gains make new job creation difficult. What is the need for companies to hire if GDP slows to 2% and productivity gains of 2%? Without GDP growth in excess of 3.5% we could have a jobless era that will continue until household and government balance sheets are repaired by de-levering. I truly hope I am wrong about this. But it would be interesting to see your analysis of jobs recovered in past recessions by incorporating the spread between GDP growth and productivity gains.